Executive Summary
The kfw surveys each quarter around 450 investors for this barometer, so it is one of the broadest and most reliable indicators of the current mood of private market investors in Europe's largest economy. In this episode, we have Dr. Fritzi Köhler-Geib, the chief economist of kfw, as a guest. She introduces us to the barometer that has 3 main components: business climate, (current) business situation, and business expectations (for the next quarter). There are also 12 subcategories covering areas like fundraising, entry evaluations, exit opportunities, new investment, deal-flow quantity, deal-flow quality, and even the taxation framework. Tune in to learn more.
The Chief Economist
Dr. Friederike "Fitzi" Köhler-Geib is the chief economist (https://www.kfw.de/About-KfW/KfW-Research/KfW-Chief-Economist/Koehler-Geib-vita.html) of kfw. Dr. Köhler-Geib has studied at HEC in Paris, the University of Michigan in the US, the University of St. Gallen in Switzerland, and Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona in Spain. She is still a fan of Michigan's Wolverines by the way. She holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Ludwig Maximilian University Munich and Pompeu Fabra University. Before becoming the chief economist, she spent many years in Washington D.C., working for the international monetary fund and the world bank. She was at the world bank the lead economist for Central America and the Senior Economist for Latin America. In these functions, she also traveled quite frequently to Central and South America.
The kfw
kfw (https://www.kfw.de/kfw.de-2.html) is a wholly government-owned development bank, based in Frankfurt am Main. The bank has a public mandate to assist federal and state governments with administrating (mostly loan) programs.
According to the total size of its balance sheet, it was Germany's 3rd largest bank in 2018. The whole kfw group includes several specialized units, including kfw capital (https://www.kfw.de/microsites/Microsite/kfw-capital.de/en/) to promote innovation and growth, which also administrates multi-billion euros in VC investments, mostly as LP in other funds.
The Venture Capital and Private Equity Barometer
For the VC and PE index (https://www.kfw.de/About-KfW/Service/Download-Center/Konzernthemen/Research/Indikatoren/German-Private-Equity-Barometer/) the kfw research department surveys around 450 investors quarterly. They are members of Germany's PE and VC Association (https://www.bvkap.de/) and part of the Deutsche Börse Venture Network (https://www.venture-network.com/dbvn-en/) on many dimensions of their outlook for the next quarter and business in the last quarter.
Not all data is available on the website in English, but the index has now a history of more than 80 quarters.
The index has three main components and 12 subcategories. The main categories are business climate, (current) business situation, and business expectations (for the next quarter).
The subcategories cover areas like fundraising, entry evaluations, exit opportunities, new investment, deal-flow quantity, deal-flow quality, deal-flow innovativeness, taxation framework, write-downs, economy (overall), interest rates, and funding.
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The Only Venture Capital Data For Germany You Need To Know